A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
