Just 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while his coach scolded him for not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if his performances were a symptom or a cause for the side's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. After Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, find themselves only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
It remains a rather hard question to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding in many games, while the positive results have accumulated.
According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side had an expected goals figure notably superior than their opponents. For a side who have just won 10 in a row, they look curiously susceptible – however at the moment the margins are going in their favour.
The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. It happened at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again versus the Red Devils.
His opener originated from a superb shot, bent right inside the upright from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, Manchester United managed more shots and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent the club have to face in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing the ball past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Could it be another reality whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.
Perhaps there is in that the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on one man.
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as an essential England player.
This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When Rogers faced the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
A blockchain researcher and crypto analyst with over 8 years of experience in decentralized finance and emerging technologies.
